Microsoft -vs- VMWare

So there's a lot of chatter in IT circles today about server virtualization. You see it all of the trade rags, you see it at symposiums, and hear about it when your out having a beer and shooting pool with your techie friends.

I recently read an article in Information Week (I think it was called "Virtualization Smackdown!") regarding who will eventually win out in the VM game, Microsoft or VMWare. The article cited several reasons why VMWare is poised for a take over. There was talk about "the end of the OS", Java VM's, VMWare making gigantic market strides and their recent "darling of Wall Street" IPO. In my opinion, they basically put MIcrosoft in a little box and said, "you kiddies play over here, while the grown ups (VMWare) go to work"

But I don't think that's the way this is going to pan out. I've built my career on Microsoft, starting out doing overnight technical phone support for Windows 3.11. Yes, that's right, I was doing this pre-Windows 95. Back then, there was this little networking application called "Netware", maybe you remember it. They basically had 100% market share on the local area network market for small offices. They had their own certification tracks, big ticket training, high paid consultants, and massive amount of infrastructure.

So what happened? Windows 95 and Windows NT 4.0 happened. With the advent of Windows 95 and Windows NT 4.0, Netware was no longer necessary. It stripped away one complex layer from the overall network management and infrastructure plan. Why buy Netware when I can get all of my routing (remember IPX/SPX, folks?), all of my permissions, all of my printer sharing, and basically everything I need with one OS for the server(s) and one OS for the workstations?

So, while VMWare is making major strides in solidifying the virtualization market, they're fighting, what I believe, is ultimately a losing battle. Why? Because this game is nothing new to Microsoft. They have a solid grip on the OS market, despite reports of slipping market share. I mean think about it. If you go from 95% of 1 billion people using your stuff, down to 85% of 2.5 billion using your stuff, have you really lost anything? Heck no! Of course this is a slightly exgagerated example, but you get the point.

Microsoft killed Netware. They killed Apple. And they killed Netscape. All companies who had huge market shares at one point. So why should VMWare be any different? Don't get me wrong, I'm learning VMWare and Linux, just in case I'm wrong. But ultimately, I don't think I'll want to stick that MSCE in file 13.

When Microsoft releases Windows 2008 and embeds virtualization into the OS as, effectively, just another service available to admins, they will move firmly into VMWare's playground, get all of VMWare's buddies (the hardware vendors) to join their gang, and VMWare will go the way of that other "ware" company, Netware, enjoying some success in niche markets and the data centers of die hard fans. That's just my 2¢.